The Money

It is not often I find that anything Andy Serling says to turn out to be true. I do not play his picks (if you can figure out which one he is leaning towards). I hear him, but do not listen.

I marvel at how much conversation he can turn out. He's never at a loss for words. But I guess that's the hallmark of a good broadcaster: you can always talk.

He does know the money though. As much as I cringe when he says some things, he does seem to know where the money will be going. I've heard that Andy was a commodities  broker before become the motor mouth mouthpiece as NYRA's public handicapper. I don't know this for a fact, but I strongly suspect Mr. Serling has a private clientele that he advises on wagering. My feeling is he knows who the whales are whose bets move the odds.

There was an instance I literally witnessed when someone placed a bet and I watched the odds drop on his pick at the next flash. It was during the 1976 Belmont Stakes when Angel Cordero seemed to carry Bold Forbes across the finish line to win the race. It was a masterful ride and one I've never forgotten. Cordero just seemed to will the tired horse across the finish line.

As the Belmont Stakes was over, an older guy, dressed in a suit, came into the area on the third floor Clubhouse by the windows. He seemed a little tipsy. In those days betting was purely through the mutuel clerks. I was seated on a bench by the tote board and when the fellow passed me, for some reason he just started talking in my direction.

He was an out-of-towner, who had perhaps a hint of a Southern accent, and he claimed that since Cordero won that race, he was going to win the next race, and that he was going to bet $3,000 to win on that happening.

I could only smile at him and wish him luck. When he placed his bet at the $50/$100 window  I watched the board and the next flash. His bet drove the odds down on his selection from perhaps 15-1 to 10-1; a mighty drop.

I saw another fellow on the same line a little further back, who blinked hard at the board when the flash presented the new odds on the horse. He seemed to jump out of his skin. I could tell his mind was quickly influenced by the effects of the bet the slightly tipsy Southerner made. He didn't know what I knew as to who made the bet, but he had the feeling that "smart money" was backing the horse whose odds had just significantly dropped. He was going to get on board as well.

There was no Hollywood ending to the next race. Cordero did not win, and anyone who followed the $3,000 bettor at the window was out whatever they bet as well. This is betting on the horses in the Big Apple.

I was reminded of that 1976 Belmont when I listened to Andy Serling tell the audience that Vekoma was going to be the favorite by post time in yesterday's Metropolitan Mile Handicap, a prestige race on the NYRA calendar.

Huh? Andy, the horse is 5/2 and McKenzie is perhaps 9/5 and it's less than a minute to post time. How the hell are the odds going to drop so much that Vekoma becomes the favorite, even with a digital wheelbarrow of money being dumped?

As the lesson learned in Guys and Dolls, do not bet against the man who tells you he can make cider squirt in your ear from a deck of cards, because this man will make cider squirt in your ear from a deck of cards. Do not bet against him.

I played Vekoma and was smacking my lips and patting my wallet at the expected 5/2 payoff. Vekoma got an outstanding number when I did my handicapping—topping the field at 206, when few horses I rate ever go near 200. I was oozing confidence.

The gate popped open and Vekoma is hustled to the lead. Within a few strides it is clear that Javier Castellano's plans are to go to the front, stay there, and try and win. And Vekoma does all that, wins in a sparkling 1:32.88 final time and rewards his backers with...

As the horses were being loaded into the gate, Vekoma was sitting at 5/2. After the gate popped open and Vekoma was in full stride at the front, the odds went to 9/5; an expected $7.00 payoff down to a minimum $5.60 payoff. Andy seemed to be right. Vekoma was the post time favorite. (In actuality, Vekoma just missed being the favorite. When the dust settled, Vekoma was $1.95 to the dollar to McKinzie's $1.85 to the dollar.)

Is there past-post wagering that occurs after the bell, dropping the odds on a horse once it is clear they've left the gate in good order and taken the lead? Or, is it just that the last flash that updates the odds is displayed just after the bell; there is no real past-post wagering. It just looks that way.

I truly do not know. This has been written about by others, and I don't know what is true. I do know that my expected $7.00 win payout for a deuce was shrunken to $5.90 for a deuce. And I bet several deuces. It's as if I was paying tax on my winnings.

Win or lose at the races, there is always a story to tell.

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