The Intervention

I don't remember the first time we met Les. But it wasn't long after we first went out to the races at Belmont. And that was for the Belmont Stakes, June 8, 1968. Les, or "Mister Pace," as we later called him, was our handicapping mentor. He was easily 25 years older than the whippersnapper age we were, at not yet even 21.

Les was a friend of James Kelly, Kelly the barber who cut my friend's father's hair. Imagine an Irish-American from Jackson Heights, ex-Marine, who lived with his mother, who was a barber. We were in rare company indeed.

Les went way back. He was an industrial food manager for ARA, who had  a master's degree in something. But most of all, he was a handicapper who taught us about pace and weight. Les would give each horse in a race a number, the lower the number the horse achieved, the better the bet. His basis for determining the number was never revealed to us, but it was predicated on weight and pace. In that era of horse racing and handicapping, weight assignments meant a great deal. Over the years, weight has become less of a factor to consider in handicapping.

A horse could achieve a minus number, which made it an even better bet. No handicapping system is infallible, but Les did pick his share of winner's using his numbers, most notably Pass Catcher, who won the 1971 Belmont Stakes at odds of over 40-1. That was a memorable day.

Over the years, we lost contact with Les and would no longer see him at the races. He loved Citation so much, who at that time was the last Triple Crown winner, that when we saved him a seat to watch the 1973 Belmont, he declined to stay with us and left the track early. He couldn't bear to wait to see what would be Secretariat's 31 length record shattering performance, establishing him as the first Triple Crown winner since Citation in 1948.

After that, we would only see Les sporadically, and eventually not at all. But his use of assigning numbers to entrants always stayed with me. I wanted to develop my own number system for evaluating a race. And many years ago, I did just that.

I use a blend of 10 factors to develop a composite number. The higher the number, the better the chances are that that horse will do well, even win. Box the highest numbers for an exacta, and use the horse with the highest number for a win bet. These days, my bets are usually exactas and win bets. Sometimes there is a Triple in there, but not often.

Some days the numbers are stone cold. This usually happen when the track is drying out from slop, or mud. I usually try not to go out when the track is other than fast. The turf can be anything, but the races have to stay carded for the turf. If they come off the turf because of rain, then the day is a bust and I basically turn into a tourist.

The numbers have delivered their share of winning days, and days of utter frustration. Horseplayers are walking multiple personalities, turning their one mind into a babel of conflicting opinions when evaluating a race. Sometimes the numbers are "refined" because they are seen as false positives; sometimes they are just plain overlooked, missed entirely because of a distraction.

Creating  a composite number for every entrant on a race day card is work that is usually undertaken the night before. Generally, the number is created before the start of the first race, but there are times when it is created on the fly, as the races are progressing. There is usually enough time between races to sift through the data and come up with the composite. Before a bet is made, the numbers are developed and evaluated.

So when The Assembled gathered at Belmont on May 14th I had the luxury of having developed the numbers for the entire card before the first race.

Not every horse can get a number. An unraced horse has no past performance to use as a guideline. Foreign horses racing domestically for the first time do not come with a Beyer number, which is a key component of my composite number. There is always improvisation in handicapping, and sometimes too much improvisation when the numbers are just plain ignored, for any of the many reasons one can talk themselves out of anything.

Such was my fate on that Saturday. After the race I would look back at my numbers and sometimes see that my numbers did indeed predict the exacta if only the top two numbers were boxed, meaning bet in either order of finish,

In one instance, I failed to even see who had the two highest numbers. I missed my own notations. The exacta came out with those two highest numbers. I had un gots.

After several post-race finishes, I found myself telling The Assembled that my numbers had that exacta. But I hadn't played it.

The Assembled that day consisted of Bobby G., Jose and myself. They were growing so tired of hearing me piss and moan that my numbers had an exacta, but I didn't, that they just about held an intervention and told me I had to bet my numbers in the next race. I was under orders to listen to my numbers.

In general, any assembly of horseplayers means that they will sit together, talk together, even eat together, but will invariably go off like a herd of cats in all directions when it comes to betting, This is actually good, because sometimes a member of The Assembled wins when the others don't. Happiness can be other people being happy.

So, when the numbers for the 8th races were consulted it was pleasant to see that the favorites didn't get the nod, but rather two outsiders, going off at 9-1 and 7-1. This time I didn't waver, refine or see some reason not to use the numbers. I boxed the two highest numbers, which were these outsiders, for a deuce apiece.

The race unfolded with number 4, Tapitry racing toward the front, a well-placed second, who eventually took the lead in the stretch. In the stretch, they were fairly quickly passed by number 6, Strike Charmer. This order of finish held to the wire and the 6/4 exacta paid $126 for $2. My numbers had it. I had it. Finally.

Bedlam broke out amongst The Assembled. I was the only one who had that race, but congratulations were rained down anyway. I still have the $100 bill that was part of my payout for the race. Eventually, it will have to be broken.

There were 11 races on that card, and my numbers had picked 5 exactas, the 5th one that 8th race. It paid the most of all the previous exactas and was the only one I had. But what a great time to finally listen to the numbers.

Sometimes, you just gotta believe.

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