The Beat Goes On

If a horseplayer is guaranteed a long life, it is also one with terminal amnesia. Class is in session.

"You're not going to tell us we missed a way to bet show in Saturday's Jim Dandy, are you? This is getting close to red-boarding."
Okay, I'll admit this one didn't quite occur to me as I was getting ready to watch the race, but it is another object lesson in looking at all the opportunities that are in front of you when you bet. And there's nothing wrong with learning something from a result. The tough thing is to apply the knowledge the next time you see a similar situation. Unfortunately, horseplayers do seem doomed to repeat their oversights. This is not selective memory, It is CRS. Can't remember shit.
"Lay it on us."
Saturday's Jim Dandy, another five horse race that looks like the result is preordained, right?
"Keep going."
Battle of the heavyweights. The Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming against the winner of the Preakness, Cloud Computing, meet in the Jim Dandy to settle a score. Sound familiar? Hype, hype hype. The place is electric. You can feel the excitement.
"Yeah, yeah, yeah, okay. What I usually feel at the track is sweaty. And hungry."
They kept banging away at the "rematch" angle, right?  Todd Pletcher's horse who wins the Derby, then doesn't show up in the Preakness vs. young Chad Brown's horse who guts it out and beats Classic Empire in the Preakness.
"Okay, yes, that rematch."
Well, as any horseplayer knows by the time they put food in their mouths for dinner on Saturday, the rematch looked more like the George Foreman-Ron Lyle fight where the only person who spent any time standing in the ring was the referee. At least American Pharoah showed tremendous resolve and finished second in last year's Travers after being a spent bullet after going a mile and a quarter.
"What's your point?"
My point is, hyped, "rematch" races with small fields will generally turn out to have surprise results. In fact, small fields in general will surprise. When Cigar was trying to break Citation's record for consecutive wins he went into the Pacific Coast Classic against five rivals and was defeated by Dare and Go, an exacta I had, by the way. Paid $120 something as I remember. And that was with Cigar second.
Do you remember Proud Clarion? He won the 1967 Derby. At 30-1 he beat the great Damascus, who was later named the Horse of the Year.
"Jesus, how old are you? You couldn't have seen Man O' War run, did you."
No, but I once met a guy a long time ago who did.
Well, Proud Clarion starts his four-year-old season off at Aqueduct, in the Westchester Handicap, I think. Our mentor and patron saint of pace, Les, tells us Proud Clarion is a sucker bet today. So what if he won the Derby? That only means they played music during the post parade.
"Your point?"
The point is, how does he fit today? In those days a handicap race required the horse to carry something more than 118 pounds. Proud Clarion doesn't win. I think he's off the board. Not sure.
"So you don't remember everything."
No. But Proud Clarion runs 9 times that year and only finishes second twice. He's just out there burning money. He's a bum.
"Okay, okay, what's the great advice you have?"
First, don't listen to Andy Serling.
"Why not."
 Didn't he tell everyone the rail was "golden" on Saturday?
"Yeah, after the earlier races, Andy points out that inside speed is winning, nothing from the outer paths is coming in first, and Always Dreaming is going for the front since he's post position No.1."
Tell me, would you buy a suit from Andy Serling?
"The point then is..."
Listen to Paul Lo Duca, the former All-Star catcher for the Mets, who tells you the sport is a puzzle and it is up to you to figure it out. Think outside the box. Making picks is one thing. Money management is another.
Look at all the ways there are to bet the Jim Dandy, despite there only being five horses. When I started the only exotic bet was the Daily Double. One Daily Double. Guys would come to the track on their lunch hour, bet the Double and hope to win. The parking lot started to empty out from those tapped out after the second race.
I hate multi-leg races, so don't expect me to tell you to "single" anyone at any time. To win any decent money on the favorites you've got to back the favorites with decent money. Exactas with the favorites will pay squat, and triples with them on top will be meager. Even a triple with either one keyed will return lass than a meal at the Shake Shack.
"Okay, I'll ask. What's the play then, O great one."
Read my lips. Dime Supers. I've hit some of these, sometimes keying on top, or just playing four horses boxed for $2.40. The Assembled have seen Jose hit these things like ducks in a shooting gallery and leaving with significant jack. These guys love to tell you the "value" of the race. But do they tell you the "value" play?
And a stake race with five horses and a Dime Super in play, means you've only got to leave one horse out, right?
"Yeah, five minus one is four, but which one?"
Leave one of the favorites out. Twice.
"Huh?"
Play a boxed Super leaving Always Dreaming out, and play a another boxed Super with Cloud Computing Out. You only lose if both come in fourth or better. Play for more than a dime boxed, if you like. A 10 cent Super returns 5% of the $2 payout. A 20 cent Super returns 10% of the $2 payout. And so on. If both favorites come in fourth or better, your micro-bet goes down the drain. But at a 10 cent Super box, twice, the most you bet is $4.80. How much is a hamburger with fries and a soda?
"Five percent of a $2 payout is going to pay what? You can't see the probables."
Do you have to know everything? Racing is a surprise. Did you see what the $2 Super paid on the Jim Dandy?
"I have a feeling you're going to tell us."
$1,070. Can you figure five percent of that?
"Not quickly."
Well, figure 10 percent, can you?
"No."
Move the decimal over one to the left, then divide by two for the 5% payout. That means you divide $107 by 2 and come up with $53.50.
"Can't I just look at the board?"
Sure. But does $53.50 seem like a nice return for a $4.80 investment to you? I'm not telling you not to bet someone to win if you love them that much. I bet $4 to win on Zito's horse Giuseppe the Great. He goes off at 14-1 and finishes second. I get back ugatz. Maybe you loved Mott's horse on his birthday at nearly 9-1, who we know won, from the five path, closing, just like Andy said, right?
"You're being sarcastic."
Think of what the Super pays if Giuseppe wins, Good Samaritan is second, Pavel is third, and one of the other bums is fourth. The super will be a lot more than $1,070, and your 5% will be a lot more, all for the same $4.80 invested. Surprise.
"All I've got to say is, you've got some memory."
Some of it is all that's left.

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