A Special Circle is Reserved

A horseplayer is guaranteed a long life. That's why you see so many "older" people at the racetrack. Sure, there are some younger ones wearing snappy looking hats and drinking from flutes of champagne at the rail, but they're just the replacements for the overall older crowd that will one day shuffle off to the window in the sky, removed from the premises by the unseen giant who will have tallied the score and figured that they have suffered enough making the same mistake and missing the same opportunities they have for decades. A horseplayer has an extremely long learning curve. It lasts a lifetime.

Okay class, when should you make show wagers?
"When they print the name of the horse on the ticket and you want a souvenir?"
Please leave the room.
"You like the horse's name and you give the ticket to your girlfriend in the hopes she'll love you tonight for your thoughtfulness?"
Please join the other guy in the hall.
God, you are a pathetic bunch. You bet show when you are presented with a small field and there is a horse taking so much money in the show pool that if that horse were to run out of the money, the payoffs would be so skewed that you'd be viewed as a mathematical genius and on the short list for an international award when your relatively tiny investment and minimal downside has the chance to be rewarded with astronomical payouts way in excess of the risk you're taken.
"Could you repeat that?"
Read my book, will you.

As anyone who follows the Sport of Kings knows, Arrogate was running in yesterday at Del Mar's TVG San Diego Handicap. a Grade II affair that the Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert was perhaps shamefully using as a tuneup for the far more lucrative Pacific Coast Classic later in the meet. Class, first beware of tuneup races. Especially those that might be the "Dubai bounce."

The track management was distributing posters: Arrogate The World's Greatest Horse. Show wagering was being allowed, in what was surely going to create a minus show pool because there wasn't going to be enough money bet on the other four horses to show to cover the legal minimum payout of $2.10. Arrogate was going off at 1/20, which meant a win payout of $2.10, with $2.10 being "guaranteed" for place and show payouts.

"So, the bet is to play Arrogate to show and collect a guaranteed 5% return."
Do you know how to swim?

Whenever these "sure" things present themselves, it is wise to watch the board and see how many schnooks there are out there who think a show wager on a horse race is going to help refund the pension plan and make it whole at a rate of return of 5%.

In fact, after yesterday's race, the Harbor Police should be dragging the waters around San Diego looking for floaters who might have thought no one will notice the missing pension funds for a few minutes. "I'll have it back in no time."

No, class, the way to handle situations like those that presented themselves before the start of the San Diego Handicap yesterday was to notice that $1.3 million was bet on Arrogate to show, with the other horses not even having as much as my credit card limits bet on them.

I've seen the out-of-money thing a few times. Once, when I was with someone at Belmont who had an across-the-board bet on Waya in the Beldame against It' s In The Air"  I chided them on being foolish to do that, since a solo win bet on Waya was the play.

Waya did win, and I did collect, but nowhere near as much as what their $6 bet turned into, approximating $100, when It's In The Air ran out of the money. Waya paid $8 and change to win. You can be too smart in this game.

There was finally an occasion I did score with a show wager that paid gangbusters when Allan Jerkens's Emma's Encore beat a Rudy Rodriquez-trained horse that the bridge jumpers were out on the ledge. I forget the horse's name, but Emma's Encore won, and returned the nicely lopsided place and show payouts. My oldest granddaughter Emma was over that afternoon, and the bet was as much a hunch bet as one that I truly believed Alan Jerkens was going to beat a Rudy Rodriquez-trained former claimer.

So class, with yesterday's San Diego Handicap identifying itself as the show bet of the century, what should the play be?
"Bet $2 to show on the other four horses in the race. If Arrogate comes in the money, big deal, you collect $2.10 twice and lose a maximum of $3.80 on the $8 wager. The downside is a loss of $3.80, with a significant upside that might approach a $100 payout on skewed show payouts."
That's right.
After the gasps settled and Arrogate came home fourth with what looked like cement shoes on, the payouts lit up the board.

Accelerate                                    17.60  32.60  22.00
Donworth                                              119.80  67.40
Cat Burglar                                                        38.20

"Wow, I see. For an $8 investment with a maximum of $3.80 downside, you would collect $127.60! Now that's a rate of return!'"

You will go far, young man.
"So tell me, how much did you score on your show wagers yesterday."
Next question.

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There are strange things done in the Del Mar sun
  By the men who moil for cash;
The horsey trails have their secret tales
  That would turn your face to ash;
The tote board lights have seen queer sights,
  But the queerest for some wasn't funny,
When the evening race had a front-running pace
  And Arrogate ran out of the money.

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