Getting to Saratoga is not particularly hard. But when you compare it to just turning TV on and making a bet, you begin to realize how many steps it is taking to getting that starting voucher and making your first bet, especially when you arrive in the area the day before Wednesday's start.
There's Tuesday dinner; there's Wednesday's breakfast, generally after a bit of a wait at the diner; then there's the parking at the free NYRA parking area off Henning Road; then there's the ride on the courtesy bus to an entrance to have your tickets scanned from your phone; then there's getting to your preferred seating in the Fourstardave sports bar, and then you're finally ready to make use of the handicapping you did the night before.
And when that handicapping tells you to bet a Davis family exacta in the first race, coupling Katie Davis and her brother Dylan Davis on Bernietakescharge and Run For Your Money respectively in a state-bred maiden special weight race, and then watching Katie taking Bernie all the way on the rail, coming back in the stretch when headed slightly by Once an Eagle who faded to third, while brother Dylan guided Run for You Money just ahead of Once an Eagle, you can collect a $39.80 exacta for $2.
There is no bigger, nicer, brighter smile than that of Katie Davis in the winner's circle, and no better feeling than hitting your first bet at Saratoga on your first day there. You're pretty much bullet proof then.
The second day at the Spa was even better than the first, but then a glitch was hit when the track came up muddy for Friday, with everything naturally off the turf. When forced to attend the races with a less than fast track, the betting is reined in. Never done well on an off track day.
A good day at the track doesn't necessarily mean another good day. And a bad day doesn't mean the next day is going to be a bad day. Races are mutually exclusive events.
So Saturday dawns with a fast track and three races still remaining on the turf. It's the Grade I Alabama, a 1¼ race for three-year-old fillies. It's the distaff version of the Travers. Champions emerge from here. We were here for this race in prior years.
We start to achieve some traction after a few races, and it looks like it's going to be a decent day. Johnny M. and I move from the Clubhouse reserved seats because seating at Saratoga is cramped when people fill up the aisle. We were in section E, row K, next to last row, and it's almost gloomy back there. It's hard to read in the dim light, even though it's bright and sunny out. Is that a six, eight or a zero in the Form? (I couldn't get the seating we prefer in the Fourstardave.)
Standing wasn't so bad, and we were able to plop on as bench that didn't have someone's clothing on it every so often. The handicapping number I use from my own rating "system" were screaming Wet Paint and Randomized as a solid exacta for the Alabama.
Wet Paint was easy to envision, being the favorite with a flock of stakes races and Graded Stake victories, notably the Grade I Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga on July 22nd. Randomized? Very lightly raced with only four starts, the last of which was a victory, at Saratoga, on July 14 in the Wilton, a $125,000 Black Type Restricted race in which she ran a 97 Beyer in winning a mile race, wire-to-wire, in what was only a four horse field.
Randomized broke its maiden in her second start, always a good sign, but after a short layoff came up a cropper in the Grade I Acorn at Belmont Park June 9th. Then came the blowout performance in The Wilton, but can that result be trusted against only three other horses?
The connections are golden: Klaravich stable, Chad Brown trainer, Joel Rosario in the saddle. The oddsmaker sees potential in making her a 9/2 morning line choice.
A recent win over the track is always a great handicapping angle, and Radomized had it with that July 14th win. There were other horses in the field who had won at Saratoga, but not lately. And the 97 Beyer was the best last race Beyer in the field.
A 1¼ race, dirt or turf, is a taxing distance for American horses. The distance is seldom run except in the top Classic races, like the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic. Does a lightly raced, front-running horse have what it takes to win a 1¼ races against the best competition?
The public doesn't think so. The 9/2 morning line has drifted up to 7-1, with Wet Paint holding onto favoritism at 19/10, just under 2-1.
But the personal handicapping numbers tell us go. There isn't anyone in the field who comes close to those two with the numbers.
So what happens? Rosario, to what should have been no one's surprise, takes the lead, and sets decent but hardly suicidal fractions, going the mile in `1:371/5 .
Taking the lead in two-turn route races is often the best tactical way to win—at any track. We've seen it happen all too often, so there is no worry about what Rosario is doing. Who will come out on top? Will Randomized hold and go wire-to-wire? Will Defining Purpose hold second and ruin our exacta? Will Wet Paint get in there and Randomized tire? The saver bet is Wet Paint to win.
The distance is taxing, and the field spreads out like a drop cloth. Into the stretch, Randomized is looking solid, but Defining Purpose is holding second—holding that is until she gets extremely leg weary and starts to drift, a sure sign of a tired horse.
Wet Paint is not going to catch Randomized, but she is going to come up on the rail and pass the badly tiring Defining Purpose and take second. Exacta! The way you like them, longest price first.
We were expecting an exacta payoff of $50 because the possibilities showed that, but that was several minutes before the betting closed. A general rule of thumb is that the exacta will pay the win price of the first horse multiplied by the place price of the second horse. Based on this rule of thumb, the exacta should pay in the vicinity of nearly $60.
Nope. We collected only $33.80 for $2, still decent, but a little short of our expectations. Skullduggery? Hardly, the rule of thumb is only just that. Obviously, right before post time a coterie of well-heeled high rollers pumped money in on that exacta combination, thereby shortening the payout when the payouts were computed. It happens.
No one ever has to be asked to smile in the winner's circle, and as Chad Brown led Randomized in from the track, his smile was as megawatt as a Katie Davis grin.
Despite the unexpected shorter payoff, so was ours.
http://www.onofframp.blogspot.com
No comments:
Post a Comment