Pittsburgh Phil

Pittsburgh Phil/George Smith

If everyone thought racing was on the up-and-up, what fun would that be?

The X Universe is alive this morning with good observations on betting patterns and outcomes. An intelligence agency would call it "lively chatter." Thoughts of conspiracy and shenanigans follow like a sunrise.  A catchy name has even emerged: 'The Fair Hill Five.' The name mimics the great British WW II spies in the U.K. that were double agents for the Soviets: 'The Cambridge Five.' I love it.

There is a difference. The Fair Hills five is not five people, but rather 5 horses that ran at two tracks on Sunday—Monmouth and Saratoga—that won from two obscure trainers, sporting workouts at Fair Hill Training Center in Maryland.

The training center is a combination of a spa, retreat, workout center, and rehab facility for thoroughbreds. It boasts of a lot of horses who have passed through it and gone on to do great things, or are coming from great things and want to get back there.

Fair Hill is not unique. There is Payson Training Center in Virginia; a similar facility devoted to getting a horse in top shape. Workouts are published in the Racing Form when they come from these facilities: "Fai"; "Pay" are the initials. Sort of like airports. There are other training centers as well. 

What has got the X people jumping is two horses, trained by Ernesto Ochoa, who won races at Saratoga on Sunday, with ease, sporting fairly lousy looking past performance form and coming off significant layoffs, but showing workouts at Fai.

In Saratoga's 4th race, Classic Rock went wire-to-wire after last racing November 7, 2025 at Churchill Downs. Classic Rock won the $35,000 maiden claiming race by nearly 9 lengths with Ricardo Santana riding, paying $18.68 to win for $2.

According to some people on X, the workouts at Fai are reported on an "honor system." That would imply there are no Daily Racing Form, or track clockers at this facility timing morning workouts. Thus, a workout might be reported, but the timing concocted; or, there can even be a workout that goes unreported. 

There was a legendary gambler, horseplayer, Pittsburgh Phil, who was really George Smith, who made over a $1 million betting on races in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Phil was the first human Racing Form, acquiring statistics on horse that no one was paying attention to. In horse racing, like the stock market—both played at by the same individuals—information is king. Google tells us:

"Pittsburgh Phil," born George Ellsworth Smith (1862–1905), was America's greatest and most methodical Thoroughbred horse racing handicapper. He won an estimated $1.7 million (a massive fortune at the turn of the 20th century) by treating the racetrack like a precise business rather than a game of chance. 

He was the first Quant of racing. He compiled all the information, and more, that is now available in a past performance. He made his own past performances, when no one else did.

In Saratoga's 7th race, also a maiden claiming, this one for $85,000, M Bs Melanie Cares also went wire-to-wire with Ricardo aboard, paying a plump $27.70 for $2 to win. They last raced January 4, 2026 at Gulfstream Park.

At Monmouth's 3rd race on Sunday, in a maiden claimer for $25,000, The Great Amira took the lead after the ¼ pole and won by 9 lengths with C.D. Lugo aboard, and trained by Angel Quiroz, a trainer with few starts and only $70,645 in earnings for the year. The Great Amira was coming off a layoff, and last race February 8, 2026 at Gulfstream Park, paying a very nice $37.20 for $2.

The 4th race at Monmouth, an open claimer, thus not a maiden race, was for a $16,000 claiming price. Tepeyac took the lead in the stretch after moving up through the field, and won by 1½ lengths with C.D. Lugo, also trained by Angel Quiroz, with only 20 starts this year. Another lightweight. Tepeyac was coming off a bit of a layoff, not having raced since April 5, 2026 at Gulfstream Park.

There is such a thing as "Rolling Daily Doubles", meaning starting with the 1st race and 2nd race; there is also a Double that starts with the 2nd race and links the 3rd race, and so on.

Consider the second daily double on the card at Monmouth, consisting of the 2nd and 3rd races won by horses that paid $9.20 and The Great Amira's $37.20, and you've got a $101.00 Daily Double payout for $2. 

Double pools are separate from win pools, but should reflect either the high or low payouts of the horses in the double, paying $101.00. A $9.20 horse, and a $37.20 horse linked in a Double paying $101.00 sounds about right. The trainer for the winner of the 2nd race was Antonio Arriga and the rider was Ruben Silvera. Thus, the winning trainer of the 2nd and 3rd races was not the same.

The rolling daily Double for the 3rd and 4th races, comprised of the Fair Hill trained winners, paid $25.60 for horses that paid $37.20 and $$9.60 to win, almost identical in payouts for the previous Double, that included The Great Amira at $37.20, and Johnny Hockey in the 2nd at $9.20 for a Daily Double that was a not eyebrow raising $101.00.

Thus, the 3rh and 4th races rolling double paying $25.60 is less than the payout for one of its legs. This is unusual, and speaks to a Double pool skewed to the two winners. You can get the justifiable feeling that someone has put "one over" on the public. It is not impossible.

I can't find my Pittsburgh Phil book right now. It is filled with his axioms, one of which was maybe the best one: never play a horse (especially a favorite) that is trying something for the first time, a distance, carrying weight, or a change of surface, or condition of that surface..

The voluble Andy Serling on the Fox racing broadcasts once attributed this to Harvey Pack, a legendary racetrack bettor and personality. Well, if Harvey said it, and he probably did, he got from Pittsburgh Phil, although not personally, since Phil lived from 1862-1905.

(After Serling quoted Harvey as coming up with that bit of advice, I X'd Andy and told him Pittsburgh Phil said it first. No response from Andy. None expected.)

I like to think that if Pittsburgh Phil were around today, he would know if something was up with Fair Hill trained runners and their reported or unreported works.  In his era, there would have been no rolling Doubles, only Win, Place and Show bets and maybe one Double at the start of the card.

$18.68 and $27.70 win scores are nothing to sneeze at. Phil would have been smiling.

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