Anyone who knows anything about horse racing knows there is an odds board. But do you realize that those are not odds as in probabilities?
The outcome of throwing dice has probabilities. Thirty-six to be exact. The odds, the probability of throwing a 7 is 1 in 6. Seven is accomplished 6 ways: 5/2, 2/5, 6/1, 1/6, 4/3, 3/4. You have the greatest likelihood of throwing a 7 more than any other combination. Throw it on your first throw, you win. Throw it before you throw your "point." you lose. Your point is the number you first throw other than a 7.
A 10/1 shot does not have a 1 in 10 chance of winning. Tote boards odds are not odds; they are expected payouts. A winning 10/1 shot will return at least $22 for a two dollar bet, the traditional racetrack bet. Naturally, a $1 bet—the lowest win bet—will return $11.
Expected payouts are a function of the distribution of the bets made (in this case the win pool). More money bet on say the 3 might make the 3 favored over the 4. To say the "public" makes the favorite is not completely true. An individual, or a coterie of individuals, can skew the pool their way by making heavy bets.
These people might be called whales, heavy hitters, professional gamblers, or are part of a Computer Assisted Wagering group (CAW)—and there can more than one of those. Likely the 20/80 rule applies: 80% of the handle in a pool is created by 20% of the people betting. Nevertheless, the " public" will be given credit for creating the favorite.
So, how do you decide who to bet if the odds are not really the odds? The eternal question that drives all horseplayers mad. Horseplayers are a group of people who can exhibit undiagnosed degrees of masochism because they shoot themselves in the foot every outing. They are walking amnesiacs, doomed to repeat their mistakes over and over.
I once knew a social worker who wrote a book about the "inner bully" in all of us; the internal voice that tells us we're going to fail, or tries to tell us. We may listen, or not. But the less you "listen" to this inner bully, the better your life will be.
I had a very good friend who was a very good handicapper. At the local OTB he was constantly getting up to cash a ticket at one of the many tracks he was playing, not just New York. He was uncanny. Not always, but he could be up $300 only to bet a massive amount on a Triple at some racetrack, say the Finger Lakes. He'd lose. The only way he'd come out ahead on the day was if he hit on the last race he'd bet and it was time to go home.
The actor Omar Sharif, a champion bridge player went broke gambling, and said being so far down was actually exhilarating. Ahmed Zayat, the owner of the once powerful Zayat Stables, and the Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, had to declare bankruptcy. His gambling debts got to be too much.
I had a die-hard horse playing neighbor who told them that when New York City had its OTB and you used letters instead of numbers to play a horse, he and his buddy would play a "GA" double because it stood for Gamblers Anonymous.
You can't listen to any pre-race analysis by anyone who won't use the term "value." The "value" bet is... So what is "value"?
It is when your think your selection's odds are not in tune with the odds board, that the odds board has a horse at significantly greater odds than you'd expect.
Self-assigning odds is fine, and totally subjective, and meant to predict probability, but the comparison is being made to something that is anything but a statement of probability, but rather a function of the betting money distribution. Thus if you think your horse should be 2/1 odds and the board says 7/1, it is a "value" play. And you might make it.
The true chances for a horse to win are not reflected in tote board odds. How many racing analysts, or, as the late, great Harvey Pack would call his ilk, Professors of Equine Prophesy, tell you they like the 2 horse at 2/1 but the odds are too short. They can't play a horse with such low "odds." It has no "value."
So, tell me, what value is a losing ticket on a horse you've selected who has "value" who basically doesn't really figure and winds up the track? They don't cash on those tickets.
In my handicapping, I assess each entrant with 11 metrics and assign a final number. (Unraced horses are a different story.) I then look at the board and construct a bet. In other words, I don't let the board make my selection.
How do I do? Just fine. I've been playing the horses since 1968, but only in the past 25 years using my self-assigned numbers. Back-in-the-day, my friend and I had a mentor, Les, Mr. Pace, who guided us into analyzing pace. In those days, he'd assign a number to each entrant. I never knew how he developed his system, but it often gave a horse a negative number, which was a great number to have.
In the 70s, the weight a horse was carrying was a key handicapping element. These days weight means little, and I'm not even sure I hear that a jockey is "2 pounds overweight" anymore.
Les, like anyone else, had his share of winners. We all do, In those early days of my going to the track the Daily Double was the only "exotic bet" And only one Daily Double. Pick the winner s of the first two races. There were no exactas, and no triple, quinellas, supers, or other horizontal bets that linked races in multiple legs. These bets are relatively new and a function of faster computer calculating.
It used to be you had to have your Double down ten minutes before the first post to give the mutuel department time to make its calculations.
I will forever remember Les meeting us at the seats we reserved with paper over them for the 1971 Belmont Stakes with Canonero II going for the Triple Crown. Les, always avoided being there for the Daily Double. He didn't want to blow his wad on it.
Arriving at the seats, Les couldn't contain himself. Pass Catcher in the Belmont had been given an ungodly number by Les. He couldn't stop talking about the horse who had in his prior race finished second to Bold Reasoning in the recent Jersey Derby. Bold Reasoning at the time was a top three-year-old, but not on the Triple Crown trail.
The word "value" wasn't bandied about then. Picking a winner was though, and Les picked a live one. An $80+ mutuel on Pass Catcher, ridden by Walter Blum who dropped his whip in the stretch. Pass Catcher sent a lot of people home disappointed, an entire 4th floor of Venezuelans to be exact, But not Les.
I hate horizontal bets, and wouldn't go near them. You can spend a lot of money on permutations that deprive you of the payout from when one of your choices makes a good return and you've only got them on a dead horizontal ticket. I prefer win and exacta betting only.
So, do I make a lot of money betting? No. My "value" is achieved by cashing a voucher out for more than when I started.
At 77 I'm still around, and I don't owe anyone any money.
http://www.onofframp.blogspot.com
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