Last week on the FoxSports show 'Racing Across America,' Anthony Stabile, (@TheBigAStabile) a NYRA handicapper, went on camera with a fellow from the crowd and asked him how does he snap a losing streak.
You only have to look and listen to Mr. Stabile to be fully aware of his horseplaying bona fides. You might take him for a typical de-and-doe guy from Brooklyn, but don't let that fool you. He knows how to properly use the word "penultimate."
On camera at Saratoga behind the stands, Mr. Stabile interviewed a fellow who proudly proclaimed he's been to 51 racetracks. The guy was easily in his 60s, perhaps early 70s, and had to be playing the horses a long time to achieve that number. I'm not sure there are currently 51 racetracks in operation in North America at this point. He could of course been overseas.
No matter, the guy wearing a Chicago Cubs insignia shirt offered some sage advice on trying to break a losing streak. Mr. Stabile admitted that after a few weeks into the Saratoga meet, he might not be doing so well. He's reached the right guy to interview.
Mr. Cub said he does something different on his way to the track. He might take a different route to the entrance. Anthony quickly acknowledged that he came to Saratoga that morning using a different route.
Mr. Cub further explained in the old days when he did his betting at the windows, rather than now using an app, he would go to a different teller window if he had been buying tickets on losers at one window. I will freely admit that while I might have once done that myself, I now see little value in changing the SAM machine I might be using. However, I will unashamedly admit that after a few losing races I will now choose a different urinal to void my bladder.
These of course play into superstitions, a more psychic approach than a nuts and bolts approach to snapping a losing streak.
But Mr. Cub gave what perhaps was the best advice of all. Maybe stop playing all those Pick 3, 4, 5, 6 multi-leg races and get back to basics. Make win and exacta bets. Stop trying to put together a 50¢ multi-leg wager that with all the chosen permutations could easily run you $40 to $50, and just play it straight. After all, when I started playing the most exotic bet available was one Daily Double, a bet you had to have in 10 minutes before the post time for the first race. There weren't even exacta opportunities until the '70s.
I will gladly tell anyone who listens, that the only bets I make these days are win and exacta. I might now and then try a 50¢ Trifecta Box in a relatively short field, but that's as exotic as I get.
Mr. Stabile nodded at the advice to get back to basics, and said that maybe now he was going to be making across the board, or show bets. Winning does produce confidence.
The multi-leg payouts usually return a handsome return on the price of the ticket you put together—but you have to HIT it. Most players put these tickets together by handicapping the choices they make. They usually don't rely on randomly selected numbers, like the lotteries that are immensely popular. That's the one aspect of playing the horse with any kind of bet that appeals to me: you make the selections.
My aversion to multi-leg bets is not just the final total you run up with even a modest number of boxed permutations, but that you might have in there a $28 winner on what ultimately becomes a losing ticket. Unless you play your choices singly as well as on multi-leg tickets, your $28 horse gives you no return. You hit a longshot and don't collect a dime. Not for me.
Because multi-leg bets play out over time on the card, they are subject to being buffeted by scratches and surface changes. If you put one of these combinations together, and your choice for the first leg is scratched, you can cancel your ticket and start again. If you have time, and if you want to.
If a choice you made is scratched after your first leg you are assigned the post time favorite. If you already picked a selection that becomes a post time favorite, then you've selected the horse twice. This may improve your payout at the end if you hit. Multi-leg wagering can get confusing when there are scratches and surface changes.
A surface change that's announced after the first leg results in an ALL selection. This is a good thing for the bettor, because a key element of handicapping a turf race is who is good on turf. If because of a sudden downpour (and Saratoga has plenty of those) a race in one of your other than first sequence is changed from turf to dirt, then you in effect have made an ALL selection. No matter who wins, your ticket stays alive.
But consider this. Because you're not the only one affected by the change to ALL, all the people who played the multi-leg bet get a gimme. This in effect puts more combinations out there that will pay out, and therefore diminishes the final payout. More winners, less money individually distributed per winning ticket.
Now imagine that another turf case in your sequence comes off the turf and goes to the dirt. Now there are two ALL selections on two legs of the sequence, making even more winners if they complete the other legs as winners.
Just such a thing happened on Thursday last week, July 28, at Saratoga. Two races came off the turf to dirt, and two races were declared as ALL bets, creating a ton more winners. Since several of the sequences end after the last race, there are a lot of computed payouts. and when you consider there are Consolation Pick 6 payouts, pick any 5 of the six winners in the sequence, you get agate printed results that run several lines. Often there is a delay in posting the payout after the last race because there are so many calculations that need to be made by the computer.
I've written about before, but several years ago four of us in The Assembled put together four $2 Pick-6 tickets with single selections, costing each of us $2 for an $8 outlay.
It was Super Saturday, and the six races were all stakes races. We missed the first leg, running second, but hung in there and hit the next 5 races. We were in line for a Consolation Pick-6.
Our winning picks were all favorites, so there were going to be many people who hit any of the 5 in the Pick-6 sequence. We anxiously awaited the payout result—$11! Split four ways, we each got back $2.75. Bobby G, refused to take his share. Even with that, we were hardly rich.
So, what was the Pick-6 payout with two ALL bets in its sequence on Thursday? $90.75 for a $1 bet. Only one horse in that sequence paid more than $10 ($11.20), and of course there were two freebie bets in there. Lots of winners from a $197,316 pool. There were probably a few people who might have come out ahead, albeit with a diminished payout.
What was the Consolation Pick-6, 5 out of 6 with the two ALL bets in there? A rather emaciated $2.45 for a $1 bet! Surely there were plenty of people who may have hit this, but failed to gain back their initial outlay.
It is very hard to make money at the racetrack.
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