The First Saturday in May-2022

Save the date. May 7, 2022. The wedding of Matt and Morgan. Yes, we'll be there, despite its conflict with the Run for the Roses. There's got to be a TV somewhere, right? There was. I was not shut out from watching the race. I was shut out from winning by seeing a horse appropriately named Rich Strike at 80-1 come up the rail, weave through traffic like a getaway car and pass Epicenter in the shadow of the wire, for the second longest price in Derby history, $163.60 for a $2 bet. Such is life.  It's why they call it gambling. 

I had placed some exacta combinations, which were not going to click even if Rich Strike stayed in the barn. But I did bet Epicenter to win, and was calculating my winnings when the horse was in deep stretch and the wire loomed. I was going to win, right? Nope.

But really. A horse that was winless in its last 7 starts, given up on by its breeders at Calumet Farm and offered for a $30,000 claiming price, is not a horse that should win the Kentucky Derby going away on a fast track. Any condition, really. A claiming horse winning the Derby is like a mutt winning Best in Show at the A.K.C. Westminster Dog Show.

Sure the Keen Ice breeding sire gave the horse a Travers winner's pedigree, but there are lots of horses sired by lots of good horses that do absolutely nothing in a race, and nothing in their career.

The last time a claimer won the Derby I think was Charismatic, who had run for a $62,500 tag. I liked his chances that day, but when I mentioned it, my buddy FourstarDave reminded me he had been a claimer, almost as if saying puh-leese, let's get serious here. I backed away from a winning bet, and hardly for the first time. You can look it up. I still think about it.

To add to the improbability of Rich Strike winning the Derby, was the fact that the horse was on the Also Eligible list to get in the starting gate. A horse had to scratch so that Rich Strike could be considered one of the 20 in the gate. And a horse did scratch, Ethereal Road. Rich Strike basically didn't make the cut to be one of the initial 20 to be entered, and had to wait for the possibility that someone ahead of them missed the flight. It happened.

When a horse like Rich Strike wins, horseplayers have a certain logic that protects their handicapping egos. There was no way I would ever bet Rich Strike based on any handicapping angles. There were none. Only hunch players who like the name, the connections, the colors, the last minute-entry circumstances, the number, something personal to hang their hat on, would ever place a bet on Rich Strike, and even fewer of those people who could tell you they truly believed their selection would win.

I'm still amazed the horse wins in the replay.

BTW, the wedding was great.

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