Sunday, May 2, 2021

Derby Day

For the first time in several years I cashed a Derby bet. I even made a few shekels in the process. I think my drought goes back to 2010 and Super Saver.

And maybe Super Saver is what happened yesterday. I finally used a Bob Baffert horse in the right spot, a "saver" bet that kept me from having to write a check to replenish my XPressBets account. Nothing like not having to write a check on Sunday morning.

It was over 50 years ago when my friend and I first learned of what a "saver" bet was from our handicapping mentor Les Barrett, nicknamed by us as "Mr. Pace." In the late '60s there weren't even exacta bets. There was the  Daily Double, and win, place, and show. And Les wouldn't even get there in time to bet the Double, a bet on winning the first two races whose opportunity to be bet closed 10 minutes before the post time of the first race. It almost seems like we started out in the Stone Age of betting. Comparatively, we did.

Les wanted to avoid the Double because he tended to blow his stash for the day if he lost. He'd rather go the distance and get to the 9th race with something left in the tank.

Any group of horseplayers always ask the other horseplayers, "who did you bet." When we asked Les, it was never a simple response. He seemed to generally bet two horses to win, with some other bets he called his "saver" bets," hedges against his top choices. Various amounts of money were allotted to each bet. Les was a human calculator. With the $20 we each brought out to the track, we'd shake our heads at Les. We couldn't afford such strategy. But then again, Les was about 25 years older than us, and made more money.

Bob Baffert is an active trainer with the most Derby wins. Going into yesterday's race he lead the other trainers with six wins, tied with Calumet Farms Ben Jones, who was active in the '40s and '50s.  The jockey Mike Smith has been called Money Mike for his wins in big races, Baffert doesn't seem to have a catchy nickname, but it doesn't keep him from success.

After my handicapping and developing my "core" bet of boxing an exacta with Essential Quality, Highly Motivated, and Rock Your World I made some saver bets, using Mike Smith and Baffert's 12-1 shot Medina Spirit. My handicapping gave Medina Spirit a decent chance of winning, but there were others who came out more on top using my calculations.

The results of course are in. Medina Spirit wins, giving Bob Baffert a now record setting 7th Derby win. It was an exciting race, with basically four horses straining at the end to get there first. To me it is interesting to note that the top three finishers, Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie behind Medina Spirit all came from the middle post positions: 8,7,9. respectively. With usually 20 horses in the Derby (19 yesterday) post positions mean something. When it comes time to handicap[ next year's race I'm going to be more conscious of where the horse is breaking from. It can make a difference.

The fractions were legitimate, 23, 463/5, 1:111/5, 1354/5, leading to a 2:01 finish. Jorge Velazquez on Medina Spirit lead at every pole, won his fourth Derby, and stripped away any chance of the others having anything left to mount a successful come from behind bid. It worked.

Medina Spirit earned a decent 102 Beyer speed rating. Any triple-digit Beyer is a good Beyer. The horse's breeding is completely pedestrian, having been sired from a first crop 10-year-old sire Protonico for a $5,000 stud fee that made Medina Spirit available for a modest $35,000 at a yearling sale. Other than the mare's sire Empire Maker, there is nothing in Medina Spirit's breeding that puts him in Blue Blood horse social circles. Medina Spirit is passing around the hors d'oeuvre tray.

If there is irony in the race it is that Medina Spirit is owned by a Saudi businessman, Amr F. Zedan. The Saudi sheiks that control Juddmonte, Godolphin and Shadwell stables have been pouring millions into Kentucky sale thoroughbred sales in hopes of capturing a Kentucky Derby. It's the missing bullet in their vast belt of international prestige wins.

The overwhelming favorite in the race is owned by Juddmonte farm, Essential Quality and was backed heavily in the U.S. betting by Jim McIngvale who plunked down $2.3 million to win. "Mattress Mack," from Houston is a gregarious character who owns a string of furniture outlets, Gallery Furniture in Texas. He is political, philanthropic and when there is a natural disaster like when hurricane Harvey hit Texas, Mack gives away a lot of mattresses.

Essential Quality had some trouble at the start, and basically winds up running wide the whole way around. Luis Saez had him pointed with dead aim at Medina Spirit in the stretch, but Essential Quality didn't have enough left to pull it off, and finished fourth.

The second place horse, Mandaloun, is another Juddmonte horse trained by Essential Quality's trainer Brad H. Cox, an Eclipse award winning training talent who tried their best to overtake Medina Spirit in the stretch., Thus, the sheiks were denied again, but the Saudi businessman prevailed. The guy with the hors d'oeuvre tray.

As usual, I handled the bets for whomever in my household wanted some action. My XPressBets account was dipping below the refill line, but I was converting my digital money into cash. It's all good. And I had those few "saver" bets, just in case.

I thought of Les yesterday, and my friend, who passed away in February. It was the first Derby when the phone didn't ring with a call from him after the horses hit the wire. I miss Les, and I miss Dave. I missed talking about my "super saver" bet.

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