Kelleycanrun

Naming a horse Kelleycanrun seems like putting too much pressure on the horse. Kelley can run, huh? So how come the looked like a pig the last two times they were out? Kelley can't run a lick.

Naming a horse is sometimes quite creative. The name can be a riff on the breeding of the horse: American Pharoah sired by Pioneer of the Nile. Or, the origin can be something known only to the original owner or breeder.  Names are registered by the Jockey Club, and can only be 18 letters, including spaces.

Naming a horse Kelleycanrun probably makes a reference to a human, but a name like that attached to a horse can give you the notion that the horse is headed for greatness because they "can run."

It's sort of like naming your kid Einstein, born of artificial insemination from the sperm of a Nobel Prize winning physicist, expecting them to be one who explores black holes in the universe. No pressure there.

There is no artificial insemination permitted in thoroughbred breeding. The chances for chicanery are too great to allow it. Interesting enough, there is a story in today's NYT Science section about donor sperm not being from who the parents think it is. Caveat emptor.

Kelleycanrun is owned by in partnership by Bobby G's good buddy, Richie P. Richie just recently owned Cassies Dreamer who made a decent showing in the Mother Goose and who through stakes placing in graded races had amassed over $200,000 in earnings, while still only having won their maiden race.

Unfortunately, but also luckily, after the Mother Goose, Cassies Dreamer developed a tremendous bout of colic and was nearly put down. Intestinal diseases in horses usually result in death. Cassies Dreamer was lucky, pulled through, is retired from racing, but has good value as a broodmare because of the graded stakes placings and her sire Flatterer, a now leading sire.

Richie, seemingly never without mutuel tickets in his pocket or horse in a barn that's his, quickly went in with John R. Murrell, the breeder of Kellycanrun, and someone who could be relied on to tell us about the horse's name.

Being a breeder means owning the mare or the sire that combined to create the foal. In this case, Mr. Murrell decided to keep the filly rather than send her out to the consignors for auction.

The stud fee for Kelleycanrun sire is a modest $25,000 for Cairo Prince. Cairo's sire is Pioneer of the Nile, who if you remember sired 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. You can see how the names have lineage.

Kelley's mare is Tempest Storm, from Malibu Moon, another productive sire of good horses. Thus, Kelleycanrun should be able to run, and run especially on grass, since Pioneer of the Nile horses are doing very well on the turf. A turf sire.

Before running in the 13th race on The Travers card (last race), a $90,000 Maiden Special Weight race on the turf at a mile and a sixteenth, Kelley ran a decent 4th in their first race on June 6th, a 6½ furlong race on the dirt at Belmont.

The usual small wager on my part was placed and the horse went off at 6-1. Their second race earned Kelley the derisive  opinion that Kelley can't run because they finished 5th in a mile and an eighth race on the dirt at Saratoga, beaten by 13¼ lengths. A poor showing at 4-1.

But in Kelley's corner is the trainer of Cassies Dreamer, a very successful trainer who is now a very fit-looking 80 and who campaigned Funny Cide to two-thirds of the Triple Crown years ago, Barclay Tagg.

I've been following Barclay for decades, and know him to be particularly good with horses on the turf. And what do we see Kelley's been up to? Why two turf works on the Saratoga turf training track. Saratoga boasts a turf training track as part of its Oklahoma training track. Downstate, there is no separate turf training track, only the main track inner and outer ovals.

Downstate the stewards do not generally allow turf works on the main turf courses unless you're a stakes horse, something Kelley clearly is not. Not yet, anyway.

So, looking a Kelleycanrun's pps for Saturday's race you come away with an initial feeling that Kelley can't run. What you have to see is the potential that Kelley can run, particularly on the turf, today's surface.

The little I know of horse anatomy is that turf specialists have a somewhat different shaped hoof that makes grass their preferred surface. Success at dirt and turf racing is not mutually exclusive, however. There are plenty of horse who can win on both surfaces. Secretariat's last race was a win on the turf at Woodbine. Catholic Boy most recently is a graded stakes winner on both surfaces.

So, aside from knowing the co-owner of Kelleycanrun, there are tea leaves out there that tell you something is up and turf might be where this horse does their best. You never really know. Trainers have an idea, and explore their ideas through entry in a variety of races: turf, dirt, long, short: with blinkers, no blinkers. Success can be serendipity.

On Saturday I wrote a brief analysis for Bobby G. about the turf possibilities for Kelley. I tell Bobby G. I'm playing my modest win/place wager. The horse is 20-1 morning line, and probably will only go up in the wagering.

I learned a long time ago to back a long shot win wager with a place wager. Win is where the bragging is, but place is where you keep your head above water.

There is a terrific scene in the movie 'The Pope of Greenwich Village' a Vincent Patrick story turned into a 1984 movie starring Mickey Rourke and Eric Roberts as his 5th cousin, a somewhat dim-witted skull. Both characters are minor players circling the mob in Little Italy, who with some nerve and no brains, rob the safe of Ferrara's bakery on Grand Street in Little Italy right after the Easter weekend receipts are locked away in the safe on Sunday.

There really was a safe-cracking at the bakery in 1972, going after the Easter receipts. How it ended for the buglers is not known..

Matthew Arnold, who wrote the Times piece on the safe-cracking and the $55,000 haul, interviewed a merchant near Ferrara's on Grand Street, near Mulberry Street after the burglary.

"You mug someone around here and you don't know until it's too late who you're involved with," an Italian-American merchant said, hinting of  forces of detection above and beyond those of the regular police.

Well, the scene is in a car as Charlie—the smarter of the two cousins—and Paulie are leaving the track at Atlantic City where they bet a bundle "on the nose" of a horse that Paulie owned, or had an interest in.

On the nose means a win bet only. All or nothing. Paulie is disconsolate since his long shot finished second, of course missing the win payday, but also missing the nice price for place.

Charlie listens to Paulie's, "woulda, coulda, shoulda" moaning with a grin on his face, and then flashes a hefty stack of Benjamins. He split the bet to win and place, and benefited from the big place price. They hit it big, even though they ran second. Charlie is clearly smarter. To a point.

Since Kelley was in the 13th race and post time was around our dinner time, I knew I wouldn't be watching the race, which at that point was only going to be on a streaming service, which for me meant Xpressbets.

I made my bet early in the afternoon and forgot about it. It wasn't until sometime after dinner I logged in and saw my balance had increased somewhat, indicating a credit of some amount. Since I knew my balance after I finished betting, and now saw that it was bigger, I knew I hit something in the 13th, but how?

Kelleycanrun had finished 2nd and paid a whopping $26 to place. You don't get many $26 place prices, especially when the favorite comes in, which in this case was a Chad Brown-firster, Magic Star, ridden by Jose Ortiz, the meet's leading rider and paying $5, a 3-2 shot, a fairly low price.

I watched the race on Xpressbets replay, and saw that Kelley broke well, settled about three-wide mid-pack, swung out in the stretch and looked to be closing in on first at the sixteenth pole, take the lead briefly, only to see Magic Star burst out of the pack and shoot to the front and make first, looking easy doing it.

So who the hell is Magic Hat? Turns out she's was unraced, trained by Chad Brown, ridden by Jose Ortiz, and was a $500,000 auction purchase for Don Alberto Stable. The sire is Scat Daddy, a leading sire who sired Justify, the 2018 Triple Crown winner. Breeding counts.

And breeding is where if there is any reliable money to be made in horse racing, it's there. The Racing Form dispenses all kinds of information these days that was not publicly available 50 years ago. Compare a pp from another era and you will be astounded how much information they now pack into a horse's past performance record.

We learn the stud fee for a horse's sire. We learn what they were sold for at auction, and when and where that auction took place. Magic Star was bred by Betz D L Stable, CoCo Burns & Magers in Kentucky. This means they arranged for the mating of Scat Daddy with his $30,000 stud fee, with the mare Meadowlake mare Meadow Breeze.

The weanling was raised and sold at the Keeneland September auction in 2017 for $5000,000 by the consignors. The Don Angelo Stable were the buyers.

The word was out on Chad's firster. Big things were anticipated, and the horse delivered by romping home at 3-2. No doubt the horse will probably do well in their next outing, and could possibly do well enough to justify the auction price.

So, Kelley lost to a possible next-out good horse. That's how it goes in maiden races, winners can move on and be noted a little further down the road as being very good. Or not. It is, after all, horse racing, and there are no guarantees.

I thought about Richie being at Saratoga, watching what is a 37-1 horse, his horse, have the lead inside the 16th pole, only to see her lose to the favorite. Where's the nearest bridge?

I figured Richie probably didn't have the exacta, because he doesn't box exactas. Turns out Bobby G. had a decent Travers day, but put his Kelleycanrun bet all on the nose.

I heard from Richie yesterday and I told him to tell me he had the horse in winning bets. No, he didn't, but not for the reasons you might imagine.

Turns out, family obligations took Richie away from the track on Saturday. He has his box, but he always donates the Travers Day admission to it to charity for a raffle.

Aside from the family affair, he would ordinarily still be at the track. He always comes if his horse is running. But not this time. Perhaps it's a blessing. Watching a 37-1 shot come in under your colors could cause a coronary, which can only good if you recover from it.

The good news is that at least Kelleycanrun proved that Kelley can run, on the turf, and will probably go on to at least improve through the levels.

The exacta for Magic Star and Kelley paid $126.50 for $2, a very healthy sum, which if astutely played could easily get someone who might be under before the last race out from under.

What's next? Surely another Maiden Special Weight race. At Saratoga this meet a race condition, an eligibility, was written that favored maidens who were not from the high priced auction lot. The condition read: "For horses that sold or RNA (reserve not attained) for $45,000 or less in their most recent sale."

This is a novel condition, designated in the pps with an R for restricted, that denotes it is not an all-comers Maiden Special Weight race. Several have been run at Saratoga, and the usual MSW purse of $90-$95,000 is pegged at $75,000. It's a great condition which allows those of modest prices and expectancies to race amongst themselves, almost making a MSW race a somewhat lower class race without having to go into the claiming ranks. The fields were full for these races, but it is not known if they'll use the condition downstate.

It's too bad Kelleycanrun won't qualify for the condition since they weren't bought at an auction. So what's next? Will Kelley get run down again by an expensive Chad Brown/Ortiz cartel horse on the turf again? They can't win every turf race, can they?

You never know. It is horse racing.

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