But slim to none doesn't kill optimism. Horses eat hay, oats and barley. Owners, trainers, jockeys and bettors eat optimism. And horse racing is sport fueled by optimism.
Take Discreet Lover, trained by Uriah St. Lewis, a hard-knocking owner trainer from Trinidad and Tobago, who gets so few owners to have confidence in him that he just goes out and buys his own horses when he can and trains them for himself. His training record does not instill confidence, with only 14 victories in 231 starts in 2018. This equates to an anemic 6% win rate. The world does not beat a path to his door.
The race prior to Discreet Lover's entry in the Breeders' Cup, the Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont on September 29, Discreet Lover's chances were so dismissed by the public that when the gate doors opened he was popping out at odds of $45.50 to $1. This is a true long shot.
Betting odds are different from probability of winning. Those odds are not found anywhere but in the subjective math of handicappers who mentally assign a number to a horse's chances of doing well enough to warrant a wager with their money.
Most handicappers would have assessed Discreet Lover's chances of winning at zero, and kept looking elsewhere for a home for their money. Trainer/owners are handicappers, and they can genuinely feel there is a reason the races are run on the track and not through someone's head. Their probability assessment can vary widely from the public's. Thus, when the gate doors sprung open for the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Uriah St. Lewis had his horse entered, and piloted by a decent journeyman jockey Manual Franco.
The neck victory in the 1¼ race over two starters who would come back to race in the Breeders' Cup Classic (one finished third) touched off a pandemonium of excitement for the connections of Discreet Lover (read the owner, trainer and family) that it was impossible for anyone watching not to be joyful as well, despite what might have been their own losing bet. (A winning bet would have earned an invitation to the hugging party that was jumping up and down on the way to the winner's circle.)
A interview with Uriah disclosed the news he had bet a $100 across the board on his horse. At $45.50 to $1, with the favorite running out of the money, this is known as a nice payday.
Will this 5-year-old horse with 46 starts, 7 firsts, 7 seconds, and 7 thirds, and now with over a $1 million dollars in earnings go to the Breeders' Cup Classic? We'll check him out and wait and see.
And so it came to pass that Uriah St. Lewis entered Discreet Lover in the Breeders' Cup Classic. The horse's ascension was too irresistible a story to pass up. Even the NYT found it in their interest to run a story in Saturday's paper about the owner/trainer and horse. "I am 60 years of age," St. Lewis said. "I might never have this opportunity again. I'm going to enjoy it."
Barring a dead heat, there would only be 14 winners, 14 seconds, and 14 thirds in the Breeders' Cup races over a two day period. Way more horses than that are entered. Full fields are everywhere. The purses are so high, ranging from $1 million to $6 million and the distribution so generous, that even 8th place can pay 1% ($60,000) in the $6 million Classic. There were 14 horses entered in that race.
In the optimism charged atmosphere that is horse racing, it is no wonder that Richie Pressman, majority owner of Cassies Dreamer, found himself itching to go to Louisville on the first Friday in November with his 2 year-old filly entered in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly race, a race that often proves to be a harbinger of great things to follow. Or not.
Even superstar trainers, like Bob Baffert who make winning big races seem like a daily occurrence, can be buffeted by the vagaries of racing. As many times as Bob has entered a horse in the Derby and won the Derby, to say nothing of two Triple Crown training efforts, Baffert has never had a winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile for Colts even make it to the Derby. And the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner is always the early favorite for the Derby. In case you don't know, Baffert won this year's Juvenile Colt race with Game Winner.
Cassies Dreamer went on to finish third twice in subsequent Grade I races and established a bit of reasonable optimism for herself and her owners that she could run with her age peers, and perhaps even outrun her humble origins. Horses from the claiming ranks are considered to be from the other side of the tracks when it comes to other horses whose genetics and connections are considered superior.
So, other than optimism in the ozone, what connects Discreet Lover and Cassies Dreamer? Nothing really. Both were capably ridden by Manuel Franco on Friday and Saturday and both ran with absolutely no threat to the winners. They were both double-digit long shot prices on the board.
Discreet Lover finished 8th and took home 1% of a $6 million purse. Cassies Dreamer ran 5th, and took home 3% of a $2 million purse and made back the pre-entry and entry fee for the owners.
Richie, having finally followed Bobby G's advice (one of the Assembled) in buying a young filly who can become a possible breeding mare, now has a young horse whose continued good races (in 4 starts the horse has earned nearly $200,000 with only one win) and possible winning races are still ahead of her. Water in the pool has all depths.
With 5th and 8th place finishes, is this the last anyone will see of these horses on a race track? Don't bet on it.
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Read me tomorrow Tues Nov. 6........
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