There is a maxim in medicine that all doctors can learn things about their patients. But the pathologist--the medical examiner--knows everything because the patient has now passed the finish line and is dead.
Horseplayers have been described as having the "I coulda, I woulda, I shoulda" disease. But there is another disease: Seeing the outcome and not acting on it. Call it 'CI--Clairvoyance Ignored.'
I once attended a meeting at the health insurance company I worked for where the senior executives were so bold as to describe the tens of millions of dollars they wasted on a failed e-commerce effort as "great tuition." I thought these guys belong in Washington.
The most recent annual trip to the Holy Land of racing, Saratoga, was not a financial success. It was a success by many other measurements, but by the time I was finished, my starting voucher was worth 90 cents. The voucher's value rose and fell as each race progressed, but ultimately fell below the price of even the cheapest newspaper.
The fourth and final day saw the two members of The Assembled growing a bit weary of getting beat by long shots that suddenly woke up, by trainers who suddenly added a victory to their already rather pathetic records, that rendered our exacta picks as 2-3 finishers, or interlopers who didn't get out of the way before the wire and left us with 1-3 exacta finishes. These beats are part of the game, as is CI, Clairvoyance Ignored.
Friday's race card was devoted to New York bred horses. A guest on the Seth Morrow morning Capital District OTB show whose name I forget, but someone whose brother is a trainer, informed us that New York breds now account for something like 46% of the NYRA entrants. That is significant. There are now three New York Showcase Days. There used to be just one.
A race, or a whole card of New York breds means that all the horses entered are considered to have been bred in New York State by virtue of where their dam in stabled. FourstarDave and Funny Cide are just a few of the famous New York breds to cross the wire first. Like New York wines, a New York bred is no longer an industry joke.
Races that are restricted to New York breds mean just that, they have to be from a dam who is standing in New York. A restricted race eliminates horses whose breeding is other than New York. The whole point of the state-wide breeding program is to promote the New York line of breeding. There are incentives in the program that reward people who engage in owning New York bred horses.
A so-called New York bred race, eliminating horses from other domains, is like a race that might be held for people who are only from your neighborhood. The competition might not be of the highest level. A rhetorical question in boxing and racing always is, "well, yeah, but who did they beat?"
Thus, when a New York bred horse enters an open race, a race with no breeding restrictions built into the conditions, the "who did they beat" questions gets asked a lot. Maybe they looked good in the restricted race, but how are they going to do against all-comers?
Occasionally, and only occasionally, a New York bred race will contain horses who are New York breds, but who have also raced elsewhere, in open races. Attention must be paid to these horses.
I like to think I notice quite a bit from a study of the Daily Racing Form's past performances. Those sages on the TV screen are really just people who have read The Form. You can see the same thing. Or not.
So, when the 8th race on the Friday card presented itself, we were tasked with trying to pick winners from a group of 2 year-old filly New York breds who of course had not raced often. The race was named 'Seeking the Ante' after a moderately successful New York bred that raced in 2004 and 2005.
These kind of races somewhat annoy me. You can of course pass the race, but I didn't travel to Saratoga to cherry pick races, I came to play.
A race like Seeking the Ante usually consists of lightly raced horse who have really just broken their maiden, winning for the first time. For that win, the trainer/owner thinks they've got a world-beater and therefore enter the horse in what is a $200,000 purse race. That's the part that annoys me. A competition for $200,000 for horses that have not yet had their picture taken in the winner's circle more than once. Infants. Rookies.
But, a race is a puzzle whose clues are sought after. So, when it is noticed that the trainer Peter Eurton, a West Coast trainer who is Britney Eurton's (a TVG on-air personality) father has got a horse entered, the antenna goes up.
Okay, I can understand how Newport Breeze got its West Coast based name, but why is this horse here? Why is Peter Eurton represented in New York when the horse, a New York bred, has raced twice in California, once at Santa Anita and once at Delmar, winning their maiden race at Delmar? What's up with that?
The Beyer speed ratings are subpar, the breeding is rather pedestrian, despite the $100,000 auction purchase price. The jockey however is Jose Ortiz, a leading jockey at the meet. So, why has Jose's agent booked him to ride this animal? Racing twice in California means the horse has raced in open company, not a New York restricted race. Who did they beat? Well, anyone who was entered, with no breeding restrictions on the entrants. Clairvoyance is active. A $200,000 race is why they're here.
These are all good things to spot. But the observational powers were tired, and missed in the pre-race analysis a horse trained by California based Doug O'Neill, a bit of a pariah in New York, who brought I'll Have Another to New York in 2012, poised to go for the Triple Crown after Derby and Preakness victories. But Doug has always been viewed suspiciously for drugging violations, so NYRA added some restrictions on where I'll Have Another was going to be stabled before the Belmont. Eyes were on the horse.
Doug O'Neill's reaction to the added scrutiny was to play along for a while, but to ultimately scratch the horse from the Belmont, claiming a minor injury. Horses with two legs of the Triple Crown under their hooves do not usually scratch from the Belmont a day before the race. There were unhappy people.
And who owns O'Neill's horse in this 8th race? Paul Reddam, who owned I'll Have Another. The owner whose business dealing were the subject of a New York Times story days before the Belmont. Even the owner was considered radioactive.
Who was riding Cause We Are Loyal? Well, Mario Guiterrez, a West Coast jockey who rode the horse in their first start at Santa Anita, finishing third. The horse's second race was a maiden race victory at Los Alamitos under Corey Nakatani.
What are the Beyers? Subpar again. Why are these people even here? Well, O'Neill has Irap in the Travers for Reddam Racing, so their presence is understandable.
So, what are the dots that should have been reacted to? The Peter Eurton entry, Newport Breeze, is one dot that is noted pre-race. Peter never brings horses to the East. He has not started a horse at the meet yet. But subpar Beyers take him out of consideration.
O'Neill's horse? Unfortunately overlooked. Why unfortunately? You weren't there, were you?
Order of finish of the 4th running of the six and a half furlong Seeking the Ante?
Cause We are Loyal, at 11-1, paying $24.40, which turns out to be the longest price of the day.
Second, in a stirring stretch drive, Jose Ortiz on Newport Breeze at nearly 6-1.
The exacta--which is a distinct betting possibility to consider to make at a $1 box, costing $2, as a flyer on the flyers from California--pays $74.25. Illness has set in.
I did get even somewhat and played West Coast in the Travers, a Bob Baffert-trained horse ridden by Mike Smith, also known as Big Money Mike.
Winners are good, but the plays that weren't made because of CI, Clairvoyance Ignored, do stay with you. The executives at my old company would call it "Great Tuition."
Summer school at the Spa.
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