The fifth member, Joe C. sings bass in a doo-wop group and ever since joining The Excellents he's been busy with many more singing dates than his old group, The Emotions. Joe has been singing in these groups since his early 20s. He's now over 65, like three of the other four members. We haven't seen him at the track now for about two years. We expect to see him replace 'The Jersey Boys' someday.
For those who might have forgotten, The Assembled all at one time worked for the same company. Four of us were in Tower One when the plane hit on 9/11. We all share a lot in common.
It is hard to believe I've been coming to the same place now for nearly 50 years. Belmont. The ivy has grown to the top of the brick walls outside, and the tress have gained enough height to start to almost obscure the building. It could be a distinguished university building. It is distinguished.
Arrive a little less than an hour before the 12:55 first race post and the place is as empty as an office elevator at midnight. In fact, count the people sitting outside in the third floor Clubhouse area and you wouldn't exceed an elevator's occupancy maximum.
The place is clean, the floors waxed, but there is a tired air about the place. There is definitely some deferred maintenance when it comes to some painting. And for some reason, a few years ago, they stuck a bar inside the cafeteria. It just doesn't go. It's no wonder the Breeders' Cup hasn't come back since 2005.
The third floor is the self-service floor. There are no people at the windows, save for one person manning the Voucher Window, where you can buy a voucher and bet at one of the many betting machines using the touch screens and the prompts. Most of The Assembled have developed the know-how to do this. The rest either bet on their phone accounts, or scurry to the second floor where there are tellers at the windows.
Saturday's nine-race card was a rather typical non-big day card. Maiden Special Weights, Maiden Claimers, open Claimers, a few allowance races, two stake races, one Grade 3, the other a Listed race. Good variety and distances, dirt and turf to challenge those who take the game seriously.
The day started out well, with a straight winner by the second race. And then it got even better.
To me, one of the most annoying words used by those who give handicapping advice is to tell you something has "value," or "no value." This means the odds are commensurate, or better, with their chances, or, the odds are too short given their chances. "Shopping for value" is a totally bogus concept in my view.
The "price-is-never-right-people" will tell you that because a likely winner's odds are too short, you should go shopping for something with more value, a horse who you think will pay a better price if they win.
It's ass backwards to me. You're picking your winner on the premise that their odds are better than something that might be the favorite; therefore you'll make more money if your "value" bet wins.
The odds should never determine who you think is going to win. Your handicapping is there to do that. Once landing on your selection, you then need to look at the odds and figure out your bet. And being flexible with making a variety of bets should be in your arsenal. Win bets, exactas, trifectas, quinellas. For my taste, I hate multi-leg bets, the so called "horizontal" bets so touted by TVG and others. These bets take your hard-figured winners and place them on a ticket that is more likely to lose than win. A multi-leg wager is only appropriate if you're going to also bet the races singularly. Few people do. They chase the rainbow and wind up with a empty pot.
The type and amount of wager you make after your single race selection(s) is where you create the elusive word "value."
Take Saturday's third race, the Grade 3 Futurity at 6 furlongs for 2 year-old colts, $200,000. Pay attention. Possible Derby horses come out of this race.
Only five horses, but all types of wagering are in play because it is a stakes race. There is an overwhelming favorite, Theory, making his first start since Saratoga, coming off a rehab for a hoof injury, but said to be ready, and showing it in the works.
Theory is 1/5. If you really think Theory is going to win, you've made your selection. Now then the type and amount of bet. Don't search for a better paying horse who you really don't think is going to win. If you like Theory, use him. But how?
The exacta type of wager has little value--small payouts--even if you're betting Theory cold with something else, or perhaps with two other horses underneath. And a boxed wager just adds more losing bets to the ticket, making any profit there is minuscule, or even perhaps non-existent.
All exacta payout possibilities are displayed. That's the advantage of exactas, you know just about what you'll get back if you pick correctly.
Now, if you don't like the return on the exactas, the "value" is low based on your selection and the amount of bet, a trifecta should be considered. The disadvantage here is that you don't know the possible payouts. But, you know from experience, a triple will pay more than an exacta.
Given that I liked Theory to win and he achieved a huge number in my handicapping system, and exactas were not to my liking, I went trifecta, picking Theory on top, keying him, with two others boxed below him for a $4 bet. This is the part the "analysts" avoid telling you. Tailor the type of bet you make after you make your selections. They keep sending you off on longer shots just because they'll pay more, when on a probability basis, they are very unlikely to win.
The $4 I've now got bet on the race is within my betting range. But it is arranged on a trifecta, a sometimes hard wager to hit. A hard point to make, if you play craps.
My good day so far gets even better when my keyed trifecta with two horses underneath Theory comes in and I get a payout of $44 on my winning trifecta. I've cashed a $44 tickets, risking $4 with a 1/5 to 2/5 shot on top. That's value.
I have another straight winner and then apply the trifecta logic to the 7th race, a New York State Bred Maiden race, with several unraced 2 year-old fillies.
Most horse players will tell you 2 year-old fillies are among the most erratic of runners. Anything is possible. This proves to be true.
My bet becomes a two-horse key on top, the very short-priced Linda Rice favorite, Stonecoldfox with an unraced prospect, Easy Way Out. I put three horses underneath, boxed, for a $3 bet, $1 bet on each of the three trifecta sequences. In effect, by keying two on top I'm picking that exacta cold, but extending my wager to the trifecta type. The cold exacta payout for my selection is too small for my taste, and even less if boxed. That's where I've determined there is little "value."
The start of the race sees what can happen when unseasoned horses leave the gate: demolition derby. The 9 horse, ridden by Antonio Gallardo wipes out everything to their left, that on replay makes you marvel that all the riders that were affected by the chain reaction collisions stayed on their mounts.
Of course, you only see this after the inquiry sign goes up, posted by the stewards on the 9 and you view the head-on shot where the foul is flagrant and obvious. The 9 horse has finished third, and is not one of my three horses underneath. The fourth place horse is one of mine.
But, a blinking light always offers hope. "He's coming down" is the refrain from the Assembled, and a scattering of the other bettors in the section, those whose bodies interrupt the wide vista of empty seats.
And down he does come, being placed 7th, and moving the fourth place finisher into the third spot, completing my trifecta and paying $44 for a $1 triple. Once again, I've gotten terrific "value." I am having an exceptional day.
The day ends and The Assembled compare wins and losses. Two of the four of us have come out ahead. I wipe my shoes off vigorously so that I don't track any "skata" (Greek for excrement) I might have stepped in to achieve such nice outcomes.
All the Assembled wish each other well. No one begrudges the other's luck, because when we meet again, the outcomes are sure to change.
http://www.onofframp.blogspot.com
Every year I say I'm going to learn how to bet... but so far, I haven't. Thanks for the informative read that kept my interest and made sense. You give me hope!
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