Thursday, August 7, 2014

The Nose Knows

The smallest margin of victory in horse racing is to win by a nose. The corollary to that is that the smallest margin of defeat is to lose by a nose. "Bet it on the nose" means to bet to win, and win by whatever margin. A win is a win.

Horse racing is not just a randomized run around the track that is repeated x number of times a day, day in and day out, week after week. The activity is "charted" by professional chart callers. A chart is a recreation of the race that's been run, using numbers, special notations, and words. A review of a chart can give the viewer a mental image of how the run was run. Of course replays do that as well, and the use of the two of them give a serious handicapper complete knowledge of how a given horse performed in a given race. Charts are powerful tools in helping to pick winners.

Chart callers by trade write somewhat understated phrases that wrap up the horses' effort. After telling you the progress through the race, they cap off their comments with somewhat understated words like "weakened" and "outfinished."  Even a horse's winning effort can be subtly stated as having "prevailed."

Since there is not a great deal of verbiage, every word carries meaning and is thoughtfully used. "Weakened" and "outfinished" pretty much tell you the horse was tired at the finish and finished poorly. The "chart" above gives you the running positions at the "poles," distance intervals of the race. The numbers represent lengths ahead of the horse running or finishing directly behind them, and an implied beaten number of lengths behind the winner, or the leader at the given pole. To some, this is reading music.

Secretariat's incomparable run in the 1973 Belmont that cemented the Triple Crown shows that he had a 31 length margin of victory over Twice a Prince. A length is rough estimate of a horse's length. In Secretariat's case, 31 lengths translated into a margin of victory nearly equal to a sixteenth of a mile--110 yards. At Belmont, there is a commemorative pole that has been put up at the spot where Twice a Prince was when Big Red glided through the finish. The chart caller for that race reached for a never again repeated phrase of calling Secretariat's effort a "tremendous performance." It certainly was.

I've seen many photo finishes. A photo finish is a very closely run race that needs the help of the camera at the finish line--the wire--to determine the order of finish. There is even a special "placing judge" who examines this photo and renders a verdict. Most photo finishes are close, but not so close that they need a magnifying glass to determine a winner. Even a horse winning by a nose can be determined with the naked eye.

Occasionally, there is a finish that is so close that a magnifying glass is needed. And occasionally, there is a "dead heat." A tie. Both horses were determined to get their nose on the wire at the same time. I've seen a few of these. I've only ever seen a photo of triple dead heat once, the Carter Handicap at Aqueduct in 1944, shown above. The photo is as famous as any horse racing photo gets. Dead heats create multiple payouts, and in this era of exotic wagers and linked betting races, they create a bit of pari-mutuel havoc with the payouts. But, the computers are ready.

I have never seen a horse lose by a tongue. The nose is the smallest part of the anatomy that is used to describe margin. Thus, when the photo went up for the 9th race at Saratoga yesterday a quick glance would lead you to believe it was a dead heat. Aren't there two horses with parts of their head on the wire simultaneously? Yes. And no.

Tricky Hat is shown in the chart as winning by a nose. Holiday Star is second by a nose, and is a neck in front of Manchurian High. Certainly a close finish, determined by a photo.

The chart caller tells us Tricky Hat "narrowly prevailed." Holiday Star "just missed." But what of the photo? It certainly looks like a dead heat. Both horses have parts of their head on the wire at the same time. Yes.

Unfortunately for Holiday Star that part of their body that is tieing the nose of Tricky Hat at the wire is their tongue.

Close counts in horseshoes. In racing, tongues don't.

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